Analysis:Sudan's Bashir plays to hardliners to stem secession debate.

When Sudan's President Omar Hassan al-Bashir returned a few weeks ago from a summit in Ethiopia with his South Sudanese counterpart and former civil war foe, many people here expected him to talk of peace. Instead, the 69-year-old ruler donned his officer's uniform, waved his trademark walking stick and - once again - threatened to cut off South Sudanese oil exports through Sudan, something the northern country's battered economy can ill afford. The International Criminal Court-indicted leader faces a succession debate at home and his rhetoric was aimed less at the South, an uneasy neighbor since it split from the north in 2011, and more at hard-line Islamists and army officers in his own circles, analysts say. This weekend, thousands of Sudanese demanded that Bashir step down in the biggest opposition rally for years. But the biggest threat to his rule might come from dissent within the army and Islamists, the backbone of his power since he seized control in a 1989 coup. Nobody in the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) has declared himself a contender, but speculation over who could run the vast African country after Bashir has increased since he indicated he might quit before 2015 elections. Diplomats say Bashir's family has been asking him to make good on that suggestion following his throat surgery last year. Officials insist he is completely fit but he has cut down on speeches and public events. Any handover would be complicated by Bashir's indictment at the ICC for war crimes in Sudan's Darfur region, where the government and the Janjaweed militia have been battling rebel groups from the minority non-Arab population since 2003. Analysts say he would be anxious to ensure a successor would not turn him over to The Hague to improve relations with the West. "He would want a hardliner as successor to make sure there won't be any concession with the ICC," said Magdi El Gizouli, a political analyst and author of the "Still Sudan" blog. Bashir is no stranger to challenges. In his 24 years in power, he has weathered protests, multiple armed revolts, U.S. trade sanctions, the loss of vital oil to South Sudan and, more recently, a coup attempt by disgruntled officers and Islamists. While Western powers shun contact with Bashir due to the ICC Darfur charges, they worry his exit might lead to instability in one of Africa's biggest countries at a time when Islamist militants are fighting French troops in Mali and roam across sub-Saharan borders. With its porous borders to Chad, Egypt, the Central African Republic and Libya, awash with arms from the 2001 overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi, an unstable Sudan could be a major security headache. Alarm bells rang when unconfirmed reports emerged that some Mali fighters fleeing French troops had arrived in lawless Darfur in February, despite Sudan's denial. "No doubt many horrible things happen in Sudan, but a Sudan without Bashir could be chaos," said a European diplomat. "You could have a link between Islamists here and in Mali." ARMY IS POWER BROKER NCP officials have played down Bashir's comments, with several calling on him to run again, fearing his exit might split the party, or indeed the country, which is dominated by three Arab tribes. Others want him to stay to safeguard their business interests. "We will accept nobody else but you," Abu Majzoub, a senior NCP official told Bashir during a party meeting two weeks ago. The president himself kept his options open at the event, declaring in a speech - one of his longest since undergoing surgery - that only a special NCP conference, expected for next year, would decide on the next candidate. But newspaper columnist Mekki El Mograbi said it was too late to stop a succession debate. Middle-aged NCP cadres have been privately complaining that key positions in the government and state firms have been held for decades by the same old men. They point to senior figures like Oil Minister Awad al-Jaz, who is on his second term in that post and has been rotated though various top jobs since the 1989 coup. "Young people inside the NCP think it is time to take over power," said Mekki, an NCP member. "They want young people present in all government positions." Some technocrats close to the NCP also feel the ICC charges stand in the way of better ties with the West as Sudan hopes for investment to realize its mineral and agricultural potential. In a first public rift, senior NCP official Ghazi Salah ad-Din said in April the constitution banned Bashir from running again. The NCP promptly removed him as head of its parliamentary caucus. To keep critics at bay Bashir cannot lose the loyalty of the army, a power broker in a country famous for coups. By accusing South Sudan of backing Sudanese rebels he is playing to the feelings of hardliners in the army and also radical Islamists for whom the old civil war foe to the south is a natural enemy, analysts and diplomats in Khartoum say. Some officers were enraged by a rebel attack on central Sudan in April, and dismayed by the army's struggle to seize back territory. Bashir has since changed the army leadership under the banner of regular retirement, which offered him the chance to promote ambitious young officers and make a new start fighting rebels. COUP RISK Aly Verjee, senior researcher at the Rift Valley Institute, said Bashir had still the support of many in the army and NCP but the risk was that disgruntled officers might team up with Islamists who feel he has given up the religious values of his 1989 coup. That risk was exposed when authorities unveiled in November a coup plot involving a former spy chief and 12 officers. One of them was a senior Islamist army officer, who is revered as a hero fighting southern "infidels" during the long civil war. "The question is not whether anti-Bashir sentiment exists, but how deep it runs, how permanent it is, and how many of the leadership are sympathetic to such views," said Verjee. The government has been at pains not to give any clues who might succeed Bashir one day. When Japan held an African summit in June it left Sudan to choose its representative as Tokyo could not host Bashir due to the ICC charges. First Vice President Ali Osman Taha would have been the top-ranking alternative, but Khartoum only sent a state finance minister. "It looked odd to have a junior minister sitting next to several African leaders, but I think they didn't want to send Taha since he's seen as a succession candidate," said a diplomat. Taha would be the preferred candidate of many Western diplomats who hope his more moderate views might open a new page in relations. But as a former judge and lawyer it remains to be seen whether he would have the backing of the army. "Bashir might think Taha is too soft and could make concessions with the ICC," said El Gizouli. Another possible contender is presidential assistant Nafie Ali Nafie, a hardliner with security ties. He has been visiting European countries such as Norway, Sweden or Russia in recent months, which some see as a hint of higher ambitions.

South Sudan suspends radio station for criticising government.

South Sudan suspended a Catholic radio station after it investigated the suspicious death of a prisoner, reporters and human rights activists said, the latest crackdown on media in the young republic. Journalists in South Sudan, which seceded from Sudan in 2011, often complain of harassment and arbitrary detention by the security forces, a loose conglomeration of former militias from decades of civil war with Khartoum. The government of the central Lakes state ordered the Good News Radio station on Friday to stop broadcasting for three days for "criticising the government", said Fernando Colombo, the administrator of the Catholic diocese that owns the station. He did not elaborate but reporters and human rights activists said the station had annoyed the government by questioning the official line on the death of a civilian in jail, among other critical reports. "The Lakes state government is intimidating the media, harassing media personnel and trying to malign those who are speaking against the abuses of human rights," said Biel Boutrous Biel, head of the South Sudan Human Rights Society for Advocacy. The regional government, which is headed by an interim military governor, could not be reached. Last month, New York-based Human Rights Watch accused the army of having detained 130 civilians without charge in Lakes state since February. Good News Radio went back on air on Monday evening but was playing only music. Former acting director Peter Mapuor Makur said reporters were afraid to return to work. South Sudan, a staunch U.S. ally, is a country without media law where the government is made up mostly of former guerilla commanders who dislike scrutiny. This year, South Sudan slipped 13 places to 124 out of 179 countries on a press freedom index compiled by the media watchdog Reporters Without Borders

Egypt:Elections do not make a democracy.

An election is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for democracy. That’s the takeaway from the continuing upheaval in Egypt. Last year, Mohamed Mursi became Egypt’s first freely elected president. Mursi won with 51.7 percent of the vote — slightly more than the 51.1 percent that Barack Obama won in 2012. Mursi was the candidate of the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist organization that had been banned and persecuted in Egypt for 60 years. Mursi’s overthrow last week put the United States on the spot. Could Washington support the removal of a democratically elected government, even one we did not like? The Mursi government may have been elected, but there are other requirements for a democracy. A democratic government has to guarantee minority rights. It has to accept the opposition as legitimate. It has to be willing to abide by the rules. And the truest test of a democracy: The government has to give up power if it is defeated at the polls. The Mursi government failed all those tests except the last one. That’s because it was only in power for a year and got removed by the military before it could stand for re-election. In that one year, however, Mursi asserted near-unlimited power over the country. He appointed Islamic radicals to key positions. He rammed through a new constitution that enshrined the principles of Islamic law. He arrested opponents and allowed attacks on religious minorities. He neglected the failing economy. He angered the military by calling for Egyptian intervention in Ethiopia and Syria. Friday, the Republican chairman and ranking Democratic member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee issued a joint statement saying, “Real democracy requires inclusiveness, compromise, respect for human and minority rights and a commitment to the rule of law. Mursi and his inner circle did not embrace any of those principles and instead chose to consolidate power and rule by fiat.” Egypt has always been a secular country. But a majority of its voters are religious and, given a chance to compete in free elections, they will elect an Islamist government. That has happened in other Arab and Muslim countries as well – for example, Tunisia, Turkey, Iran. In 2006, Palestinians in Gaza elected a Hamas government allied with Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood. Islamist governments usually infuriate the secular population and antagonize the military — which is what happened in Egypt. Tensions are also high in Turkey, where a relatively moderate Islamic government faces large-scale protests by the secular population. The point is, elections sometimes produce unsavory results. The classic example: the German parliamentary elections of July and November 1932, which made the Nazis Germany’s largest party. As a result, Adolf Hitler became chancellor in 1933. Mursi is no Hitler, but the Muslim Brotherhood is a paranoid and fanatical movement whose long-term commitment to democracy is much in doubt. To radical Islamists, elections are a way to gain power. They are enraged because the results of Egypt’s 2012 election have been nullified. “Didn’t we do what they asked?” an Islamist voter told The New York Times, “We don’t believe in democracy to begin with. It’s not part of our ideology. But we accepted it. We followed them, and then this is what they do?” An Islamist in Libya had this complaint: “Do you think I can sell [democracy] to the people any more? I have been saying all along, ‘If you want to build Shariah law, come to elections.’ Now they will just say, ‘Look at Egypt,’ and you don’t need to say anything else.” To many Islamists, the United States has been exposed as hypocritical. We promote democracy, but we will not stand by a democratically elected government when it is threatened. Many believe that Washington was complicit in Mursi’s overthrow. The Obama administration reportedly tried to broker a compromise that Mursi was unwilling to accept. At the same time, secular Egyptians complain that Washington did not criticize Mursi’s undemocratic regime. To them, it proves that Washington is interested only in stability, not democracy. Didn’t the United States support the corrupt regime of deposed Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak all those years? More than any other recent event, the overthrow of the Mursi government in Egypt highlights a conflict between the form and the substance of democracy. “Why is it just ballot boxes?” a human-rights activist asked. “Are ballot boxes the only forms of democratic expression when the rulers fail the people?” We Americans nurture the pothole theory of democracy. We like to believe that, if a radical government is elected, it will quickly learn that it has to moderate and serve the needs of the people in order to stay in power: It has to fill the potholes and keep the lights on. But to many Islamic radicals, the ballot is just an alternative to the bullet as a way to gain power. They are ready to abandon democracy if the military and the West won’t allow them to stay in power. There was a frightening sight in Egypt last week. Thousands of Mursi supporters rallied under the black flag of jihad and chanted, “No more elections after today!” But democracy means a lot more than holding elections. That’s something they have to learn. We just learned it in Egypt.

Turkey condemns Cairo shooting,calls it massacre.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu condemned the Cairo shooting in which at least 42 people died on Monday, describing the incident as a "massacre" and calling for the start of a normalization process. Islamist protesters angered by president Mohamed Mursi's overthrow said the killings occurred when they were fired on outside Republican Guard headquarters. The military blamed the bloodshed on a "terrorist group" that tried to storm the compound and said at least one soldier was killed and 40 hurt. "I strongly condemn the massacre that took place in Egypt at morning prayer in the name of the fundamental human values which we have been advocating," Davutoglu said on Twitter. He called for the start of a political normalization process that respects the national will of Egyptians. Turkey's government has Islamist roots like Mursi's Muslim Brotherhood. Davutoglu last week denounced the Egyptian army's removal of Mursi after days of mass unrest against his rule "a military coup" and said this was "unacceptable".

Cars seized from Equatorial Guinea president's son reap 2.8 million euros.

From Bugatti and Bentley to Ferrari, Porsche and Maserati, nine luxury cars seized from the son of Equatorial Guinea's president as part of a money-laundering investigation fetched 2.8 million euros ($3.6 million) at an auction in Paris on Monday. Teodorin Obiang, the son of President Teodoro Obiang and apotential successor, is second vice-president of the small oil-rich African state and is wanted in France on charges he embezzled public funds to buy real estate in Paris. He denies wrongdoing and says he earned the money in legitimate business. The cars, seized by French judges in September 2011, drew a crowd of about 100 potential buyers, mostly male, to the prestigious Drouot auction house, with other bids coming over the phone or online. The auction was ordered by a state collection agency that can use the proceeds to indemnify victims. Dating from 2004 to 2010, the cars with leather interiors and spotless paint work appeared infrequently used, with very little mileage, providing a glimpse into Obiang's lavish lifestyle in Paris and abroad. "I'm delighted, it went really well. We met our target - it's a judicial process and we're trying to recover as much money as possible," auctioneer Damien Libert said. ($1 = 0.7792 euros)

South African police arrest five for botched circumcision deaths.

South African police have arrested five people on suspicion of murder for botched circumcisions that led to the deaths of about 30 boys in coming-of-age rituals in the rural Eastern Cape province, a police spokeswoman said on Monday. Police were also investigating suspected assault, gross bodily harm and unlawful circumcisions that left 300 others injured across the province over the last week, police spokeswoman Sibongile Soci said. Every year in South Africa, boys aged 10 to 15 from several of the country's tribal groups are circumcised in traditional "initiation rituals". The ceremonies usually take place over a number of weeks in remote rural areas. Deaths are mainly caused by blood loss or infection from circumcisions poorly performed by traditional practitioners. The ruling African National Congress called the deaths and injuries "tragic" and said the government must act immediately. "Authorities can no longer pay lip service to dealing with this disaster that afflicts our nation during the traditional initiation season," it said in a statement. In May, more than 20 youths died in the northern Mpumalanga province, prompting rare cross-party calls for reform of a practice ingrained in local culture.

U.N. urged to consider drones,gunships for South Sudan mission.

The United Nations should consider deploying surveillance drones and helicopter gunships in South Sudan because peacekeepers are struggling to protect civilians from violence and rights abuses, the U.N. special envoy to South Sudan said on Monday. Hilde Johnson told the U.N. Security Council that after a U.N. civilian helicopter was shot down in December, new safety procedures and a lack of military helicopters - the peacekeepers have only three - had slowed the mission's ability to respond. Johnson said U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon had outlined several options to boost the South Sudan mission in a report to the 15-member Security Council, including surveillance drones, helicopter gunships and more cargo and riverine transport capabilities. "I urge the council to take urgent action to support the mission in filling these critical resource and capability gaps," Johnson told the Security Council in a video link briefing. South Sudan will mark two years of independence from Sudan on Tuesday and Johnson said that while most parts of the country remained stable, fighting between South Sudanese troops and armed groups in the eastern state of Jonglei was of "deep concern." Tens of thousands of people have fled their homes because of the violence and Johnson said there had been rights violations by both armed groups and national security authorities. On April 9, gunmen ambushed and killed five U.N. peacekeepers and seven civilian staff in Jonglei. The U.N. mission has fewer than 6,900 troops to cover a country the size of France that has barely 300 km (200 miles) of paved roads. Seasonal rains have turned the region into a swamp, severing road access. Johnson said "critical resource and capability gaps" had caused a mobility crisis for the peacekeepers that particularly affected operations in high-risk areas such as Jonglei. "This is having a particularly detrimental effect on the mission's ability to implement its protection of civilians' mandate," she said. "Effective protection is only possible through being present in those communities most at risk." The Security Council is due to renew the mandate of the U.N. mission in South Sudan later this month, and a senior council envoy said that peacekeepers should focus more on protecting civilians "rather than on spreading out across the country and doing infrastructure projects and nation building." DRONES FOR CONGO, IVORY COAST FIRST The envoy, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said deployment of unmanned surveillance drones would be useful, but that was unlikely to happen until next year and was dependent on the success of a pilot program in Democratic Republic of Congo. In his report, Ban also said surveillance drones should only be considered after the Congo program had been evaluated. The U.N. mission in Congo is due to begin using surveillance drones in August to monitor the thickly forested and remote eastern border with Rwanda and Uganda. Congo has been battling a year-long insurgency by M23 rebels. U.N. experts accused Rwanda of sending troops and weapons across the border to support the M23 last year. Rwanda denies the accusation. The United Nations has also set aside money to deploy surveillance drones eventually in Ivory Coast to monitor its border with Liberia following a recommendation by Ban and a request from the west African country. Western Ivory Coast has been the target of deadly raids blamed on supporters of former president Laurent Gbagbo, who was ousted in a civil war in 2011 after he rejected the election victory of rival Alassane Ouattara. While Gbagbo is in The Hague charged with crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court, many of his top political and military allies are living in exile in neighboring West African nations.

South Sudan's 'midwives' attack Kiir over corruption and abuses.

A group of U.S. activists who helped to bring about South Sudan's secession have blasted the government of Africa's newest nation in an open letter for allowing "shocking" human rights abuses and corruption to undermine stability. Two years ago, the oil producer won independence from Sudan under a 2005 peace deal that ended one of Africa's longest civil wars, helped by a group of U.S. activists who lobbied the United States to press Khartoum to let the south hold an independence referendum. The group, often known as South Sudan's "wonks" or "midwives", still wield influence with U.S. policymakers, and have long shielded South Sudan from rising criticism over human rights violations. But an open letter to President Salva Kiir distributed by email, they said they could no longer be silent about violence by security forces against civilians, critics of the government and journalists. "We joined you in your fight against these very abuses by the Khartoum regime for many years. We cannot turn a blind eye when yesterday's victims become today's perpetrators," said the activists, who include former U.S. State Department official John Prendergast and professor Eric Reeves. "This violence is shocking and has included rape, murder, theft and destruction of property." While normal South Sudanese had no access to hospitals or schools, people stealing public funds had sent their children to private schools abroad or to get the world's best medical service. "In a remarkably short period of time, the name of your country has become synonymous with corruption," the letter said. Kiir last month suspended two ministers over alleged fraud but critics say such measures are mere window-dressing to address rising criticism from donors. Kiir also wrote last year to 75 current and former officials to ask them to return $4 billion in stolen public money, but diplomats say this has not been backed up by any prosecutions.

EU condemns 'horrific murder' in Nigeria

The European Union has condemned the "horrific murder by terrorists" of dozens of people, mostly students, in an attack on a secondary school in Nigeria. The attack, blamed on the rebel group Boko Haram, happened on Saturday at a school in Mamudo, Yobe, one of three states where the government declared a state of emergency in May in a push to rein in the group. "I condemn in the strongest possible terms the horrific murder by terrorists of some 30 innocent children and a teacher early on Saturday morning in a school in Mamudo town in northeastern Nigeria," Catherine Ashton, the EU foreign policy chief, said on Sunday in a statement. Ashton promised Nigerians her "solidarity and determination to help them bring security, peace and reconciliation to the north", and called for those responsible to be brought to justice. Survivors of the dawn attack said gunmen rounded up students and staff at the school in Nigeria's restive northeast and placed them in a dormitory before throwing explosives inside and opening fire. A hospital official in nearby Potiskum said 42 people were killed. A spokesman for Nigeria's military, which often underplays casualty figures, said 20 students and one teacher were killed. Boko Haram, which means "Western education is a sin", has killed hundreds of students in attacks on schools in the region in recent months. Nigeria launched a major offensive against Boko Haram on May 15, battling anti-government fighters in the states of Adamawa, Yobe and Borno. The ongoing offensive has forced thousands of Nigerians from their homes into refuge in neighbouring countries of Niger and Cameroon. Schools closed Meanwhile, Yobe state has ordered the closure of all secondary schools after the massacre Saturday's massacre. Ibrahim Gaidam, the state's governor, "directed that all secondary schools in the state be closed down from Monday 8th July 2013 until a new academic session begins in September," a government statement said. The order came amid reports that soldiers involved in a shootout with fighters who were given refuge in one Nigerian village hut took revenge on the community by setting ablaze about 10 homes, according to refugees who fled to neighbouring Niger. Their stories indicate a pattern of Nigerian security forces punishing entire communities, including innocent civilians. Refugees spoke to an Associated Press reporter on a trip with Nigerian officials who are pleading with them to return home, visiting thousands who have fled across borders to escape an Islamic uprising and a military crackdown. Deputy governor Zannah Mustapha of Borno state visited Niger on Saturday, days after visiting more than 20,000 refugees in Cameroon. Mustapha promised "adequate security" would be provided to ensure their safety from further attacks in their northeastern hometown of Mallam Fatori. The refugees, among 6,240 recorded in Niger, indicated they are as scared of the Islamic extremists as they are of the soldiers who are supposed to protect them.

At least 11 dead as ship held by pirates sink off Somalia

At least four foreign crew members and seven Somali pirates died when a cargo ship that the pirates were holding to ransom off the Somali coast sank on Sunday, and 13 others were missing, a pirate who works with the gang said. The Malaysian-owned MV Albedo cargo vessel and its crew were hijacked 900 miles off Somalia on Nov. 26, 2010 while sailing from the United Arab Emirates to Kenya. "The ship has been gradually sinking for almost a week, but it sank totally last night," the pirate said on Monday by telephone from Haradheere, Somalia's main pirate base. "We have confirmed that four foreign (crew) and seven pirates died. We are missing 13 in total," said the pirate, who gave his name as Hussein. "We had no boats to save them." The Albedo had 23 crew from Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Iran when it was seized. Hussein said the captain had died earlier and four of the crew had previously been taken off the ship. With four dead, this would leave 14 to be accounted for, and it was not clear why there was a discrepancy with the pirates' figures. The EU Naval Force, a European Union anti-piracy unit that protects merchant shipping off the Horn of Africa, said the whereabouts of 15 crew were still unclear. "EU Naval Force can confirm that the Malaysian flagged motor vessel MV Albedo, held by armed pirates at an anchorage close to the Somali coast, has sunk in rough seas," a statement on the force's website said. "An EU Naval Force warship and Maritime Patrol Aircraft have closed the sea area and are carrying out a search and rescue operation to search for any survivors. The whereabouts of the 15 crew members from MV Albedo is still to be confirmed." Some hostages are held on land while pirates demand ransoms from ship owners, with some kept onboard to maintain the ships. The number of attacks by Somali pirates has fallen over the last two years due to increased naval patrols and the presence of well-armed security teams on ships. The local administration said the Albedo had been the last ship held off Haradheere, because it had convinced many pirates to quit the business and given them training in legal trades. But piracy emanating from the lawless Horn of Africa may still cost the world economy about $18 billion a year, the World Bank said in a report in April.